HEATHROW DECISION UP IN THE AIR
12 November 2008David Wighton
BUSINESS EDITOR'S COMMENTARY
It's hard to believe, I know. But it's true. Heathrow is getting better. BAA has focused management time and resources on the UK's principal gateway and it is paying off.
After a difficult start, Terminal 5 is a huge improvement on anything seen before and Terminals 1 and 2 are next for an overhaul. But no matter how well BAA cleans the loos and cuts the queues, there is no escaping the fact that Heathrow is full. Its runways are at maximum capacity and even a small problem can snowball into long delays.
BAA and British Airways believe that a short third runway would relieve the pressures. They point to Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt, which have twice as many runways and fewer delays. A good international airport is vital to the British economy, they add. And the CBI agrees.
But many senior business figures are less than convinced in private, as are several senior members of the Government, which is due to make a decision by the end of the year. Gordon Brown is said to favour the proposal, though yesterday he emphasised that the environmental impact would have to be considered.
How can the Government claim to be cutting emissions but allow Heathrow to expand? And why should Londoners put up with more noisy planes overhead so Americans can transfer on to flights to Dubai?
The growth assumptions on which the plan is based now look way out of date, even with oil back at $60. What about the alternatives? In an ideal world, we would build a 21st century airport east of London rather than muddle through with an aerodrome in the wrong place designed in the Second World War. Back in the real world, high-speed rail links may be a better answer for the short haul routes a third runway would serve.
There is a strong argument for the Government to delay a decision. According to the Competition Commission, BAA's ownership of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted stifled growth at the smaller airports. Both are likely to be sold and the new owners would probably expand them, which could ease Heathrow's capacity problems more effectively than building a runway too short for jumbos.
We will not know how London's airports will change until the Commission makes its final report next year and bidders reveal their plans for Gatwick and Stansted. The Government should hold fire until then. In the meantime, BAA has plenty more to do at Heathrow.
(c) Times Newspapers Ltd, 2008
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